If You Don't Find It Often, You Often Don't Find It:
Effects of Target Prevalence in Visual Search and Decision Making 

Speaker: Jeremy M. Wolfe
Brigham and Women's Hospital / Harvard Medical School  

September 22, 2021
11:15 AM - 1:00 PM U.S. Eastern Time 

Abstract
Think about the security check at the airport. The screeners are looking for targets that are very rare: A weapon in a carry-on bag, an ID that doesn't match the traveler. Almost two decades of research has taught us that, compared to more common targets, a higher percentage of such rare targets will be missed. This "low prevalence effect" is easy to produce and surprisingly hard to cure. Moreover, it occurs in the 'real world' and not only in the lab. Recent studies from our lab and others have enriched our view of prevalence effects. For example, we now know that, under some conditions, low prevalence produces elevated false alarm error rates, rather than elevated miss rates. Several labs have produced clever new ideas about 'fixing' the prevalence effects, but no magic bullet has yet been found and prevalence continues to play a significant role in tasks from driving to cancer screening.

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